How our predictions work

Every prediction on AnalystBet comes from a statistical model, not from someone’s opinion. The same method is applied to every match, every day.

Football

• Team strength. From each team’s recent results we estimate how many goals it tends to score and concede, adjusted for the strength of its league and its opponents.
• Expected goals and form. Where available, expected goals (xG) show how many chances a team really created, which is a steadier guide than goals alone. Recent form is weighted in.
• Home advantage is measured separately for each league.
• Score probabilities. From those ratings the model works out the chance of every possible scoreline. Win, draw and loss chances, over/under goals and both-teams-to-score all come from that one calculation, so they never contradict each other.
• Market prices. When bookmakers’ odds are available we blend them in, because they capture late news such as injuries and line-ups.

Basketball

Basketball predictions project each team’s points from its scoring and defensive record and home advantage, giving a win probability, a projected score, a points total and a spread.

Tested on real results

Before a change goes live we test it on thousands of past matches, predicting each one using only the information available before kick-off, and keep it only if it makes the predictions more accurate. Our live results are published on the predictions page.

Confidence

Early in a season, or for teams with few recent games, there is less data to go on. We mark those predictions as lower-confidence instead of hiding the uncertainty.

Limits

No model can know everything: red cards, injuries announced late, weather and plain luck all change games. Use our numbers as one input, never as a guarantee. See responsible gambling.